Mulligan Guide
Knowing when to keep and when to throw back your opening hand is one of the most important skills with Replenish.
Mulligan Philosophy
With Parallax Tide banned, the deck went from having 8 hand-fixers to just 4. You can't rely on drawing out of a bad hand anymore. You need to mulligan aggressively in Game 1 in the dark. Don't keep slow hands hoping to topdeck exactly what you need.
See how many of these boxes your opening hand ticks:
1. Interaction (Swords, Seal, Leak)
2. A 3-mana blue Spell (Attunement, Intuition, Frantic Search)
3. A 4+ mana enchantment (Opal, Wave, Decree)
4. Replenish
5. 4+ mana (Lands/Tomb)
Rule of thumb: Keep if you have 3 or 4 of these. Anything with 2 or fewer is probably a mulligan.
Hands You Should Keep
Assuming you have the lands to cast your spells, these are solid starting hands in the dark:
- Engine + Lands: Attunement + lands. This is your best possible start.
- Combo + Lands: Opalescence + Parallax Wave + lands.
- Tutor + Piece: Intuition + any combo piece (Opal, Wave, Replenish).
- Heavy Control: Mana Leak + at least two other interactive spells (Swords, Seal).
- Setup: Replenish + Frantic Search + an expensive permanent to discard (Opal, Wave, Decree).
- Early Board Control: Parallax Wave + Seal of Cleansing.
Ancient Tomb
Ancient Tomb speeds up your game plan entirely. Hands like Tomb + Intuition + (Swords/Leak/Frantic) are usually instant keeps.
Hands You Should Mulligan
Don't fall into the trap of keeping these hands in the dark:
- The "Do Nothing" Hand: 4 Lands + Opal + Decree + Seal. You have to topdeck perfectly for several turns to actually do anything.
- Flooded: 5 Lands + 2 interaction spells. You will likely draw combo pieces with no way to discard them.
- Dead Weight: Replenish without an enabler (Attunement, Frantic, or Intuition) is a dead card.
The Math
Assuming you are on the play and cast a draw spell on Turn 3 (51 cards left in deck), here is the chance to find a specific card you need (like Replenish):
| Spell Cast | Cards Seen | Chance to find at least 1 of a 4-of | Chance to find at least 1 of a 3-of |
|---|---|---|---|
| Frantic Search | 2 | 15.1% | 11.4% |
| Attunement (1 activation) | 3 | 22.2% | 16.9% |
| Fact or Fiction | 5 | 35.3% | 27.3% |
The Frantic Search Paradox: As the table shows, a single Frantic Search gives you just a 15% chance to find one specific 4-of. This is why keeping a hand where you desperately need Frantic Search to find exactly Replenish is a huge gamble.
However, if your hand is flexible and you have 15 different "outs" that make the hand work (e.g. any Replenish, Wave, Attunement, or Intuition), your odds jump to ~75% across your first three turns. Frantic Search shines as a discard outlet when you already have Replenish, or when you have many outs, but it is a weak engine on its own.